https://cuicaihao.github.io/zh/tags/%E8%B6%85%E7%BA%A7%E9%A2%84%E6%B5%8B/Recent content in 超级预测 on C.CUI's LogHugozhTue, 05 May 2026 07:00:00 +1000https://cuicaihao.github.io/zh/posts/2026-05-05-superforecasting-naming-uncertainty-scoring-judgments/Tue, 05 May 2026 07:00:00 +1000https://cuicaihao.github.io/zh/posts/2026-05-05-superforecasting-naming-uncertainty-scoring-judgments/本文探讨了由菲利普·泰特洛克提出的“超级预测”方法论。它将预测从主观表态转变为可量化的工程学，通过概率化、费米化拆解、贝叶斯更新和布里尔分数检验，帮助我们克服认知偏误，建立科学的判断账本。