https://cuicaihao.github.io/zh/tags/%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%9C%E5%81%8F%E8%AF%AF/Recent content in 结果偏误 on C.CUI's LogHugozhThu, 16 Apr 2026 10:00:00 +1000https://cuicaihao.github.io/zh/posts/2026-04-16-probability-distribution-what-exactly-is-decision-making/Thu, 16 Apr 2026 10:00:00 +1000https://cuicaihao.github.io/zh/posts/2026-04-16-probability-distribution-what-exactly-is-decision-making/本文通过分析历史迷信、扑克逻辑和系统论，揭示了决策的本质并非追求单次结果，而是对未来概率分布的管理。真正的高手看重的是过程的稳健性与不对称性。