https://cuicaihao.github.io/tags/systems-thinking/Recent content in Systems Thinking on C.CUI's LogHugoen-AUFri, 17 Apr 2026 10:00:00 +1000https://cuicaihao.github.io/posts/2026-04-17-granularity-and-causal-mediation-thinking-with-models/Fri, 17 Apr 2026 10:00:00 +1000https://cuicaihao.github.io/posts/2026-04-17-granularity-and-causal-mediation-thinking-with-models/Explore why high-level decision-making requires models that balance complexity and causal logic. Learn about Minimum Description Length (MDL) and how to identify ‘causal mediators’ like on-base percentage in baseball to gain a competitive edge in complex systems.https://cuicaihao.github.io/posts/2026-04-16-probability-distribution-what-exactly-is-decision-making/Thu, 16 Apr 2026 10:00:00 +1000https://cuicaihao.github.io/posts/2026-04-16-probability-distribution-what-exactly-is-decision-making/By analyzing historical superstitions, poker logic, and systems theory, this post reveals that the essence of decision-making is not chasing single outcomes but managing the probability distribution of the future. True masters prioritize process robustness and asymmetry.