Planning Fallacy on C.CUI's Loghttps://cuicaihao.github.io/tags/planning-fallacy/Recent content in Planning Fallacy on C.CUI's LogHugoen-AUMon, 04 May 2026 07:00:00 +1000Reference Class: The Spectator Sees Clearly, You Are Not Specialhttps://cuicaihao.github.io/posts/2026-05-04-reference-class-you-are-not-special/Mon, 04 May 2026 07:00:00 +1000https://cuicaihao.github.io/posts/2026-05-04-reference-class-you-are-not-special/An introduction to Reference Class Forecasting (RCF), a cognitive tool to overcome the planning fallacy and the ‘inside view’ by treating your projects as statistical samples rather than unique stories.