Outcome Bias on C.CUI's Log

Outcome Bias on C.CUI's Loghttps://cuicaihao.github.io/tags/outcome-bias/Recent content in Outcome Bias on C.CUI's LogHugoen-AUThu, 16 Apr 2026 10:00:00 +1000Probability Distribution: What Exactly is Decision-Making?https://cuicaihao.github.io/posts/2026-04-16-probability-distribution-what-exactly-is-decision-making/Thu, 16 Apr 2026 10:00:00 +1000https://cuicaihao.github.io/posts/2026-04-16-probability-distribution-what-exactly-is-decision-making/By analyzing historical superstitions, poker logic, and systems theory, this post reveals that the essence of decision-making is not chasing single outcomes but managing the probability distribution of the future. True masters prioritize process robustness and asymmetry.