Decision Science on C.CUI's Loghttps://cuicaihao.github.io/tags/decision-science/Recent content in Decision Science on C.CUI's LogHugoen-AUTue, 21 Apr 2026 10:00:00 +1000Information Value: How to Distinguish Sand from Goldhttps://cuicaihao.github.io/posts/2026-04-21-information-value-distinguish-sand-gold/Tue, 21 Apr 2026 10:00:00 +1000https://cuicaihao.github.io/posts/2026-04-21-information-value-distinguish-sand-gold/An exploration of the Value of Information (VOI) theory, explaining how to distinguish high-value information that changes decisions from low-value “sand” that only provides emotional satisfaction.Probability Distribution: What Exactly is Decision-Making?https://cuicaihao.github.io/posts/2026-04-16-probability-distribution-what-exactly-is-decision-making/Thu, 16 Apr 2026 10:00:00 +1000https://cuicaihao.github.io/posts/2026-04-16-probability-distribution-what-exactly-is-decision-making/By analyzing historical superstitions, poker logic, and systems theory, this post reveals that the essence of decision-making is not chasing single outcomes but managing the probability distribution of the future. True masters prioritize process robustness and asymmetry.No Free Lunch Theorem: Impermanence and the Necessity of Bias in Decision-Makinghttps://cuicaihao.github.io/posts/2026-04-15-no-free-lunch-theorem-decision-making-bias/Wed, 15 Apr 2026 10:00:00 +1000https://cuicaihao.github.io/posts/2026-04-15-no-free-lunch-theorem-decision-making-bias/This post explores how the “No Free Lunch Theorem” from computer science reveals the essence of decision-making: perfect, objective, and neutral decisions do not exist. By introducing the concept of “Inductive Bias,” it argues that all effective decisions begin with subjective choices and preferences. It proposes a three-step decision-making process: setting a strong prior, algorithmic searching, and systematic risk-taking.