Decision Making on C.CUI's Log

The OODA Loop: Speed is Not About Reaction, But About Updating Your Mindset

Wed, 06 May 2026 07:00:00 +1000

An in-depth look at the OODA Loop (Observe-Orient-Decide-Act) and why its true power lies in ‘Orienting’ and rapidly updating your mental map in a changing environment.

Superforecasting: Naming Uncertainty and Scoring Your Judgments

Tue, 05 May 2026 07:00:00 +1000

This post explores the ‘Superforecasting’ methodology proposed by Philip Tetlock. It transforms forecasting from subjective statements into a quantifiable engineering discipline. By using probabilistic thinking, Fermi-izing decomposition, Bayesian updating, and Brier score validation, it helps us overcome cognitive biases and build a scientific ledger of judgment.

Reference Class: The Spectator Sees Clearly, You Are Not Special

Mon, 04 May 2026 07:00:00 +1000

An introduction to Reference Class Forecasting (RCF), a cognitive tool to overcome the planning fallacy and the ‘inside view’ by treating your projects as statistical samples rather than unique stories.

Prospect Theory: Why the Fear of Loss Drives Risk-Taking

Fri, 01 May 2026 14:00:00 +1000

This article explores Daniel Kahneman’s ‘Prospect Theory,’ revealing that human decisions are not based on absolute utility but on gains and losses relative to a ‘reference point.’ Through concepts like loss aversion, status quo bias, the endowment effect, and the framing effect, it explains why people are more prone to risk-taking when facing losses and how to make better decisions by actively managing reference points.

Regression to the Mean: Why Extreme Events Aren't the New Normal

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 09:24:43 +1000

Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel laureate in economics and one of the founding fathers of decision science, shared a compelling story in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow [1].

Kahneman was once conducting a training session for the Israeli Air Force. He presented a viewpoint well-known in psychology: rewarding good performance is far more effective than punishing mistakes. There is a vast amount of research supporting this [2], whether you are educating children, training athletes, or even teaching animals in a circus; positive reinforcement should be the primary approach.

Selection Bias: Why Your Sample of Reality Isn't Real

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 10:00:00 +1000

If you’re getting older and spend time online, you may have felt a melancholy that culture and society are in decline compared to the past.

Nowadays the internet is flooded with clickbait garbage and petty domestic wisdom—people talk about nothing but hardship, dowries, and infidelity. Even mainstream media has forgotten how to speak proper Chinese. Occasionally you dig up old TV adaptations of Red Chamber Dream or Three Kingdoms, and you can’t help but think this generation of audiences has failed us, that Chinese cultural refinement is in serious collapse.

Options: The Privilege of Retaining Optionality

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 10:00:00 +1000

An exploration of the concept of “Options” as a decision-making tool, discussing how to preserve strategic flexibility through agile experiments, BATNA, and understanding the difference between one-way and two-way doors.

Fragility and Antifragility: How to Harness Asymmetric Risk

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 10:00:00 +1000

An exploration of Nassim Taleb’s concept of antifragility, discussing how to move from being fragile to antifragile by embracing volatility and managing asymmetric risks.

The Kelly Criterion: Cognitive Monetization in a Multiplicative World

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 10:00:00 +1000

Introduction to the Kelly Criterion, explaining its origins in information theory and how it serves as a bridge between your cognitive edge and your betting or investment scale to maximize long-term compounding growth without going bust.

Bayesian Prior: Subjective Judgment with a Scientific Edge

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 10:00:00 +1000

This article explores the core concept of Bayesianism—the ‘prior.’ It explains why preconceptions are the starting point of cognition and how to scientifically update our views with new evidence. Using examples like rare disease testing, spam filtering, and AI language models, it illustrates the importance of Bayesian thinking in decision-making.

Granularity and Causal Mediation: How to Think with Models

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 10:00:00 +1000

Explore why high-level decision-making requires models that balance complexity and causal logic. Learn about Minimum Description Length (MDL) and how to identify ‘causal mediators’ like on-base percentage in baseball to gain a competitive edge in complex systems.

Constraints: Respecting Reality Before Taking Action

Wed, 04 Feb 2026 14:26:25 +1000

An exploration of why many popular narratives fail to account for the ‘hard constraints’ of reality, using examples from literature and Elon Musk’s DOGE initiative to emphasize the importance of respecting limitations before taking action.