https://cuicaihao.github.io/tags/cognitive-bias/Recent content in Cognitive-Bias on C.CUI's LogHugoen-AUTue, 05 May 2026 07:00:00 +1000https://cuicaihao.github.io/posts/2026-05-05-superforecasting-naming-uncertainty-scoring-judgments/Tue, 05 May 2026 07:00:00 +1000https://cuicaihao.github.io/posts/2026-05-05-superforecasting-naming-uncertainty-scoring-judgments/This post explores the &lsquo;Superforecasting&rsquo; methodology proposed by Philip Tetlock. It transforms forecasting from subjective statements into a quantifiable engineering discipline. By using probabilistic thinking, Fermi-izing decomposition, Bayesian updating, and Brier score validation, it helps us overcome cognitive biases and build a scientific ledger of judgment.https://cuicaihao.github.io/posts/2026-04-29-selection-bias-sample-of-reality/Wed, 29 Apr 2026 10:00:00 +1000https://cuicaihao.github.io/posts/2026-04-29-selection-bias-sample-of-reality/<p>If you&rsquo;re getting older and spend time online, you may have felt a melancholy that culture and society are in decline compared to the past.</p> <p>Nowadays the internet is flooded with clickbait garbage and petty domestic wisdom—people talk about nothing but hardship, dowries, and infidelity. Even mainstream media has forgotten how to speak proper Chinese. Occasionally you dig up old TV adaptations of <em>Red Chamber Dream</em> or <em>Three Kingdoms</em>, and you can&rsquo;t help but think this generation of audiences has failed us, that Chinese cultural refinement is in serious collapse.</p>