Moloch: Why is East Asia So Caught in Involution?

This article will explore why Chinese society experiences such involution. Some attribute it to China’s economy not yet being prosperous, while others believe it stems from institutional flaws. However, before delving into that, I suggest you first understand the situation in South Korea.

South Korea, a developed country with a per capita GDP of $35,000, possesses a mature electoral system and high degrees of freedom, with its cultural industry globally popular—yet, the degree of involution in South Korea even surpasses that of China.

Data from 2024 shows that South Korea’s private tutoring participation rate is as high as 80%, with students’ average monthly tutoring fees reaching 592,000 Korean Won, approximately 3,000 RMB [1].

Compared to South Korea, the Chinese emphasis on the Gaokao (national college entrance exam) seems almost insignificant: on the day of the Korean college entrance exam, the nation delays work, the stock market opens late, the military suspends drills, and police cars are on standby in the streets to clear paths for potentially late candidates. During the 35 minutes of the English listening test, all flights at airports nationwide are even suspended from taking off or landing [2].

This extreme examination competition has led to suicide being the leading cause of death for Koreans aged 10 to 39, with its suicide rate ranking highest among OECD countries [3].

However, what has such nationwide involution ultimately brought? Data shows that among South Korean youth aged 25 to 34, 71% have received a university education, but a university diploma is no longer scarce. The average income of university graduates is only 31% higher than that of high school graduates, and the employment rate for highly educated youth is only 80%, lower than the 87% average for similar groups in OECD countries [4].

This unproductive involution is, in fact, a widespread malaise in East Asian societies. Today’s Japan seemingly no longer experiences involution: young people have low desires, unwilling to buy homes or marry, and statistics from the Japanese Cabinet Office show that 1.46 million people choose to hikikomori (socially withdraw) at home, interacting almost exclusively with family members [5]. However, forty years ago, Japan experienced the most intense examination competition globally, even coining the term “examination hell” (受験地獄). Today’s “lying flat” (躺平) phenomenon in Japanese society is precisely the exhaustion manifest after excessive involution.

The root cause of East Asian involution must be a certain characteristic shared by China, Japan, and South Korea, yet absent or playing a weak role in other regions.

This characteristic is precisely what we call Moloch.

The Concept and Mechanism of Moloch #

Moloch, in the Hebrew Bible, was originally an evil deity to whom people sacrificed their own children. An American poet once borrowed this name to refer to the colossal, cold machine of modern society that serves no one discernible [6], thereby transforming Moloch from a child-devouring god into a system that devours humanity. In 2014, American psychiatrist Scott Alexander wrote “Meditations on Moloch” [7], sparking widespread discussion and officially elevating this imagery to a social science concept.

The Moloch explained by Alexander is a “multipolar trap”: multiple individuals or entities in competition, where each makes the most rational choice for themselves, yet these choices, when aggregated, push all participants towards an outcome no one desires.

Many social phenomena can be explained by Moloch theory. For example, the arms race: each country buys weapons to enhance its own security, yet when all countries do so, they collectively create a deeper sense of insecurity. Another example is traffic algorithms: platforms find that users stay longer when angry, so all platforms eagerly push anger-inducing content.

We can view Moloch as a special manifestation of the Prisoner’s Dilemma. Its causal chain typically unfolds as follows—

Multiple parties compete, and a single metric (e.g., profit, ranking, click-through rate, military strength, speed) determines success or failure. → Someone discovers that sacrificing values not included in the metric (e.g., health, safety, honesty, childhood) can lead to an improvement in the metric. → That individual gains a short-term lead. → Others face the choice to follow suit or drop out. → Most people follow suit, forming a new normal. → Ultimately, everyone’s relative position remains largely unchanged, but everyone’s absolute quality of life generally declines.

It is worth noting that there are no absolute “bad guys” in this game. No one deliberately intends for the situation to worsen; everyone is aware that things will turn negative, but no one dares to be the first to stop. This is precisely the most terrifying aspect of Moloch.

So, how can the Moloch trap be broken? Scholars have proposed various methods to limit competition, such as countries signing arms control treaties to supervise each other and prevent arms escalation, or governments directly intervening with regulations. However, these measures often address symptoms rather than root causes.

The South Korean government once stipulated that tutoring centers had to close by 10 PM. As a result, large group classes transformed into more expensive one-on-one tutoring, and tutoring expenses still reached new highs every year.

The most fundamental problem with the Moloch trap is that it is a game where success or failure is determined by a single metric. Economists have a “tournament theory” for this [8]: as long as rewards are distributed based on relative ranking rather than absolute output, people’s efforts are no longer aimed at creating actual value, but merely at vying for ranking positions.

Moloch is precisely a “single-track tournament,” where everyone’s destiny is squeezed into a common leaderboard. As long as this fundamental issue exists, all measures aimed at coordinating and limiting competition are merely temporary fixes.

The Moloch phenomenon is not unique to East Asia; it has localized manifestations worldwide. However, the three East Asian countries have turned this single-track tournament into a national-level, even universally participated, competition.

East Asia: The Breeding Ground for a Single-Track, National Tournament #

In East Asian societies, the single track in people’s minds is to get into a prestigious university, find a stable job, and buy property; and the single metric for this track is scores. In East Asian societies, scores can be exchanged for an exceptional multitude of values. Historically, approximately two key factors determined East Asian societies’ extreme emphasis on scores.

The first is the imperial examination system (Keju). Keju can be described as the purest single-track tournament in human history: for thirteen hundred years, a vast empire condensed all pathways for elite advancement into a single track.

“All heroes under heaven, into my snare,” “Emperor Taizong’s truly long-term strategy, ensnaring heroes until their hair turns white,” “All professions are lowly, only scholarship is high”—these are not poetic exaggerations, but a true portrayal and operational description of the imperial examination system: among the four classes—scholars, farmers, artisans, and merchants—only the “scholar” class led to power, wealth, and social prestige, and the path to becoming a “scholar” was solely through examinations.

During the Ming and Qing dynasties, even if one amassed wealth comparable to a nation through commerce (which itself was extremely difficult to achieve, and the state system also limited the excessive power of wealthy merchants), their highest ambition was merely to spend money to acquire an official position or title. The long-term strategy for merchant families was typically “one generation in commerce, one generation in scholarship”; wealth alone was not enough to bring true social status; it had to be converted into official honors.

Perhaps some might ask, after all, only a minority participated in the imperial examinations, and the vast majority of common people were even illiterate. So how did examinations evolve into an East Asian national tournament?

The second key factor is that in the mid-20th century, the three East Asian countries all underwent a dramatic social “Great Leveling” [9]. China achieved this through revolution: land reform eliminated the landlord class, and public-private partnerships absorbed national capitalists. Japan, due to its defeat in war, underwent the dissolution of zaibatsu (financial conglomerates) and land reform. South Korea’s experience was even more direct: due to the agony of national subjugation, the aristocratic class lost its foundation during the colonial era, and the subsequent Korean War completely flattened any remaining wealth disparities.

The result of these three “levelings” was the complete eradication of hereditary hierarchies, placing everyone on the same starting line.

However, while the starting line became equal, only one track remained. Without hereditary aristocracy, powerful guilds, or estates and family fortunes passed down through generations, what kind of “compound interest” could ordinary people accumulate? The answer was: academic credentials.

Academic credentials became a universally recognized identity asset across society.

In contrast, European societies still retain diverse remnants of old societies: aristocratic classes, church influence, traditional guilds, and a deeply entrenched artisan culture—for instance, the son of a German baker who takes over the family bakery would not feel inferior to a neighbor who went to university.

Singular value combined with equal opportunity ultimately leads to a national tournament.

This is a rather counterintuitive truth: involution does not stem from social injustice; it is precisely a product of “fairness.” In caste systems or serfdom societies, people, though desperate, would not experience involution, because their tracks were already locked.

Involution is a kind of “punishment” reserved for societies where “everyone feels they have a chance, everyone believes they should participate, and everyone compares themselves to others.”

The Gaokao is one of the fairest examinations globally; therefore, it has also become the most involutionary examination globally.

The Heavy Price of Involution and Four Bills to Pay #

The term “involution” was first introduced into the Chinese context by historian Philip C. C. Huang, originally used to describe the small-peasant economy during the Ming and Qing dynasties [10]: where land resources were limited, but the population continued to grow, forcing peasants to invest more and more labor into finite land—yet, with each additional unit of labor, the returns became increasingly meager. Huang defined it as “growth without development.”

The current situation of the Gaokao is similar: if no one took private tutoring, universities would still admit the same number of students; if everyone took private tutoring, the number of university admissions would still remain unchanged. So, what is the point of our tutoring? Has actual work ability truly improved because of it?

This is a classic manifestation of Moloch: everyone puts in more effort, but no one becomes safer as a result.

The “negative externalities” generated by involution extend far beyond merely intensifying competition; it also brings four heavy bills to pay—

The first bill is credential inflation. American sociologist Randall Collins’s theory of “credential inflation” [11] operates on the same principle as monetary inflation: the more diplomas are issued, the more their value depreciates, but no one dares to be the first to stop “issuing” them. Yesterday, a bachelor’s degree was a competitive advantage; today, it’s an entry ticket; tomorrow, a master’s degree might also become a mere queue number.

The second bill is talent mismatch. Even if humans are viewed as tools, they are not singular values but rather a complex set of abilities: encompassing various dimensions such as abstract reasoning, practical skills, aesthetic appreciation, empathy, organizational coordination, adventurous spirit, and narrative expression. However, a single-track tournament forcibly projects this multi-dimensional vector onto the singular dimension of “examination scores,” inevitably leading to significant information loss.

A child who might have become an excellent chef, carpenter, salesperson, or nurse is labeled a “poor student” simply because of a single score. In such circumstances, a child’s rational choice is often to abandon other talents and developmental paths.

Some scholars analyzed 3.85 million patent data items from 31 provinces in China and found that the “tighter” a province’s social norms (i.e., the less tolerant of behavior deviating from standard paths), the greater the proportion of incremental innovation, and the less radical innovation [12].

In other words, the more a society emphasizes a single-track tournament, the better people become at maximizing performance on known tracks, but the less adept they are at exploring areas that initially don’t appear to be tracks at all. This might be why China excels more at “from 1 to N” rather than “from 0 to 1.”

The third bill is “lying flat” (躺平). Some believe “lying flat” is a form of rebellion against involution. However, consider this: would someone genuinely indifferent to the existing track choose to “lie flat”? The answer is no. They would enthusiastically pursue other interests and goals.

“Lying flat” is not truly giving up, but rather a posture towards the track. Those who “lie flat” are not indifferent; on the contrary, they care too much: they both value this track and are convinced they cannot win, so they protect themselves by saying, “I’m not running”—“You can’t say I lost, because I didn’t even participate.”

Japan represents the extreme manifestation of the “lying flat” phenomenon. After experiencing forty years of “examination hell” style involution, with the bursting of the economic bubble, young people found that the life chain of “studying hard, entering a big company, securing lifetime employment, and steadily climbing the ladder” had been broken. Consequently, the entire society entered a state of “grand retreat.” However, it’s noteworthy that even so, Japanese tutoring centers are still operating at full capacity today.

Japan is not an exception in East Asia; rather, it serves as a preview of East Asian society’s future.

The last, and most burdensome, bill: children.

Moloch’s original meaning is a deity that devours children. Today, it “devours” our children in the following ways—

First, it devours childhood: tutoring classes extend from kindergarten all the way to the third year of high school. Next, it devours youth: during university, students continue to compete fiercely for GPAs, internships, postgraduate admissions, and civil service positions. It also devours sleep: in Japan and Korea, the saying “four hours for success, five for failure” (四当五落) was once popular—meaning one could pass by sleeping four hours a day, but fail if they slept five. Ultimately, what it devours is the next generation: marriage requires a house, and a house is a prize in this tournament; raising children demands enormous educational investment, and this investment is precisely the entry ticket for the next round of the tournament…

Young people examine this bill, find its cost too high, and simply choose not to have children.

If you believe China’s current fertility rate is already too low, then I must point out that South Korea’s fertility rate is even more pessimistic. In 2024, South Korea’s total fertility rate (TFR) was only 0.75, the lowest globally. What does this number mean? Roughly estimated, for every 200 young Koreans forming 100 couples, only 75 children will be born—meaning the number of the children’s generation will be only slightly more than one-third of the parents’ generation. In another generation, those 75 people might only leave behind 28 children.

This is tantamount to national self-extinction. However, do these young people who choose not to have children dislike them? On the contrary, they act out of deep love for children. They believe that if they cannot provide the best growth conditions for a child, if having a child merely means watching them get caught in endless competition, then it’s better not to have one at all.

Low fertility rates are precisely the last resistance East Asian youth offer to Moloch.

Breaking the Moloch Trap: Building a Value-Pluralistic Society #

The fundamental antidote to breaking the Moloch trap lies in expanding the single track into multiple tracks. Your success on this track is success; his success on that track is also success—society must recognize and accommodate more than one way of life.

This is what we call “value pluralism.”

“Value pluralism” might sound like politically correct platitudes—isn’t it just advocating for “respecting minorities, tolerating different individuals”? Far from it.

Value pluralism is not just a stance; it is more akin to a society’s immune system, the true antithesis of “involution”: involution means everyone swarms towards a single path to success, while value pluralism means society can ultimately accommodate a diverse range of success models.

The reason Western societies do not experience involution to the same extent as East Asia is precisely their adherence to the concept of value pluralism. They have never been “leveled” into a single track, but have preserved diverse social organizations such as churches, guilds, and trade unions, attracted immigrants from various countries, and even host unique communities like the Amish who reject modernization. Some countries still retain aristocratic classes, forming distinct ways of life.

However, if a society is already a single track, can it still re-cultivate diverse values? The answer is yes, and there are plenty of precedents, both ancient and modern, Chinese and foreign.

In 1876, the Meiji Restoration in Japan abolished samurai privileges. For the first time, sons of farmers had opportunities to become military officers or engineers, and social talents surged forth as a result.

In 1905, the Qing court abolished the imperial examination system, and innumerable intelligent minds were liberated overnight. Within a single generation, they became scientists, engineers, businessmen, and thinkers. It can be said that modern China was born from the ruins of the imperial examination system.

Today, two-thirds of Swiss youth choose vocational education after graduating from junior high school, and the qualifications of German master craftsmen enjoy equal status with university degrees within the national occupational framework. This is not a result of compulsory streaming; the key behind it is the minimal income disparity between industries—blue-collar jobs also possess a sense of prestige and respected status, so people naturally do not flock en masse to university education.

Although these transformations all had their specific historical conditions, experienced growing pains, and even faced backlash, change is ultimately possible.

Social Self-Correction and Hope #

Society will ultimately move towards self-correction. Limiting competition is merely a temporary fix; building a value-pluralistic society offers a fresh start, and population decline is an even more radical solution.

According to data, the number of Gaokao applicants in China has declined for two consecutive years in 2025 and 2026 [13]. Given the continuously declining fertility rate, future applicant numbers will only decrease. Currently, some universities have started actively “recruiting students” (抢人), and the situation is quietly reversing.

At the same time, as the premium on academic credentials declines year by year, some university graduates are choosing to “return home to start businesses” (返乡创业), or even become “full-time children” (全职儿女), significantly diminishing the appeal of the single track.

Humans, after all, possess agency. Every individual who rejects the shackles of Moloch is exploring new pathways for society. A great civilization can never recognize only one type of “life worth winning.”

【Coda Poem】

For a thousand years, battle drums roar ’til dawn, Ten thousand steeds on a single bridge, vying to win. Self-inflicted pains crush nascent blooms of youth, In barren grounds, cold shoots wither, no future seen. Kin against kin, blades sharpened in empty strife, Gods stand by, observing the bitter fight. Resolved to fire this lonely, towering stack, Smashing barriers, myriad paths now lie bright.

Notes

[1] Statistics Korea, “2024 Survey on Private Education Expenses for Primary, Middle, and High School Students,” released March 2025. https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a10301010000&bid=245&list_no=435485&act=view&mainXml=Y

[2] Xinhua News Agency, “Korean Society ‘Escorts’ College Entrance Exam: Adjusts Flights, Suspends Military Drills, Delays Work” (November 2025) and other reports.

[3] OECD Health Statistics.

[4] OECD, Education at a Glance 2025: Korea Country Note: Korea’s tertiary education attainment rate for 25-34 year olds is 71% (OECD average 48%), employment rate for highly educated youth is 80% (OECD average 87%), and earnings premium for tertiary education is 31% (OECD average 54%).

[5] Japan Cabinet Office, “Survey on Children and Young People’s Consciousness and Life,” released March 2023.

[6] Ginsberg, Allen. “Howl.” In Howl and Other Poems. San Francisco: City Lights Books, 1956.

[7] Alexander, Scott. “Meditations on Moloch.” Slate Star Codex, July 30, 2014. https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/

[8] Lazear, Edward P., and Sherwin Rosen. “Rank-Order Tournaments as Optimum Labor Contracts.” Journal of Political Economy 89, no. 5 (1981): 841–864.

[9] Scheidel, Walter. The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2017.

[10] Huang, Philip C. C., “The Peasant Economy and Social Change in North China,” Zhonghua Book Company. See also “Elite Daily Reading” Season 4, “What Exactly is ‘Involution’?”

[11] Collins, Randall. “Credential Inflation and the Future of Universities.” Italian Journal of Sociology of Education 3, no. 2 (2011).

[12] Chua, Roy Y. J., Kenneth G. Huang, and Mengzi Jin. “Mapping Cultural Tightness and Its Links to Innovation, Urbanization, and Happiness across 31 Provinces in China.” PNAS 116, no. 14 (2019).

[13] Reuters report, June 2026: China’s Gaokao registration for 2026 is approximately 12.9 million, a decrease of 450,000 from the previous year, marking the second consecutive year of decline.